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Tropical Storm Emily could affect NC

By kmr
August 3, 2011 | Posted in: The Coast, Weather & Climate | Tags: , | Comments closed

The extent of the impact and the strength of the storm are in question, but it looks like Tropical Storm Emily will pass close enough to North Carolina to cause some trouble. Depending on if, how and when it curves out to sea, the storm could either track inland just east of the I-95 corridor inland with heavy rain and winds or churn up the coast should it pass out to sea.
We could see signs of the storm as early as Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters says:

Having taken all of this into consideration, the 5 day NHC track forecast splits the difference between the HWRF/UKMET and GFS/GFDL tracks, bringing Emily over the central Bahamas before recurving towards the northeast. Emily is also forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday, August 7. However, it is important to remember that NHC has said that the forecast uncertainty after 48 hours is larger than usual for Emily. So, people living on the East Coast should still not think they are in the clear just yet.

The latest NWS discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/12. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS…EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER…THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD…EMILY SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BEGINS TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. IN
GENERAL…THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT SHIFTED CLOSER TO FLORIDA ON
THIS CYCLE…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE MODELS AROUND
DAY 3 AND BEYOND…SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

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